"Every step to end Ukraine war will have impact on how security architecture is shaped"

“We are all trying to make this war come to an end sooner rather than later, (and) there will have to be a new security architecture to emerge globally,” Ibrahim Kalin said at the Doha Forum 2022 in Qatar.

“How that security architecture will be shaped (and) structured will actually shape the course of events in the decades to come,” he told a panel on "Geopolitical Implications of the Russia-Ukraine war on the Middle East."

Saying that every step and move to end the war will have an impact on how the security architecture will be shaped, he added:

“Russia is not going to go away as a country, Russia is going to be there, The Western bloc is going to be there. Ukraine will remain an independent sovereign country with its own territorial integrity, and we all support and make sure that this is the case. But mediation efforts, other efforts to bring an end to this war will be key in terms of shaping that new security architecture. Therefore, we have to be very careful with every step.”

Kalin added that what led to this crisis and more needs to be carefully studied, adding: “The power, this equilibrium that has shaped the international order, ever since the end of the Cold War, actually, over the last three decades, has everything to do with the rise of this crisis. And unfortunately, the eventual war that we are all trying to stop right now. So we have to think about that, too.”

Also, he said that energy will be key again in the decades to come and energy geopolitics will have to change after the war, adding that in the long run, ramping up oil production or gas production it will not be enough to solve the problem.

Türkiye’s mediation efforts

On Turkiye’s mediation efforts between Russia and Ukraine, Kalin said: “It is with this approach that we have kept our lines of communication open with both Russia and Ukraine. We have comprehensive good relations with both countries.”

Kalin said there are a number of areas in which Turkiye disagrees with Russia, such as Syria and Libya, but Turkiye also has been able to develop a working relationship with Moscow, where it managed those differences in a way that helps the processes on the ground.

“In Syria, we are probably the only counter-balancing force against the regime supported by the Russian forces there. A point to keep in mind is the situation in Idlib, where you have about 3 million people’s squeezed in that little part of Syria.

“Turkey is preventing the next wave of refugee crisis coming out of Syria. And I think we all, especially our Western partners, should be thankful to Turkey and Turkey’s military presence in northern Syria.”

Western countries have criticized Turkiye’s security operations across Syria’s northern border over the last several years, but Turkish officials have touted the country’s success in neutralizing a terrorist threat there and making the region safe for locals.

New security architecture after Ukraine war

Saying that leadership diplomacy will be key in bringing an end to the Ukraine war, Kalin said: “In the long run as we move forward into the post-Ukraine war situation, we all will be thinking about this new security architecture.”

“We have to keep in mind that if everybody burns bridges with Russia, who’s going to talk to them at the end of the day? And of course, we are trying our best with that effort. Our president spoke to President (Vladimir) Putin and (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelenskyy two times, he will be speaking to President Putin in the coming days again. And we all have to work hard to create an environment in which both sides feel safe, secure, and comfortable enough to come to the negotiating table.”